Galaxy Research Declares End of Bitcoin Bear Market

Bitcoin markets are bracing for a potential post-election surge even as current sentiment remains cautious. Today’s roundup explores growing institutional conviction in a long-term bull cycle, the integration of traditional finance with the XRP Ledger, and shifting regulatory timelines in South Korea.

Galaxy Research Calls Time on the Bear Market

Galaxy Research has officially declared the end of the bitcoin bear market, pointing to a fundamental shift in market dynamics that began as early as June. The firm identifies a marked decline in selling pressure from long-term holders as the primary catalyst for this transition. While current conditions appear to be in a state of consolidation, Galaxy suggests the present environment offers a strategic entry point for investors focused on long-term accumulation. This outlook contrasts with the current BD Pulse reading of 35.2/100, which reflects bearish sentiment in the broader market. Despite skepticism baked into exchange-derived data, the firm maintains that the structural health of the asset has improved significantly, signaling that the worst of the volatility is likely behind us.

Institutional Traders Bet Big on Election Volatility

Large-scale derivatives activity suggests institutional players are positioning for a massive breakout following the United States midterm elections. A substantial $68 million bet has been placed on the market, with traders targeting a price point of $90,000 for bitcoin. This speculative move underscores anticipation that political shifts in Washington will serve as a catalyst for price discovery. The BD Extreme Index currently sits at -0.99σ, indicating a significant deviation from historical norms. This combination of high-stakes derivatives positioning and extreme statistical variance suggests traders are bracing for a sharp move once election results are finalized, betting that the current period of stagnation will give way to a rapid upward trajectory.

Aviva Investors Taps XRP Ledger for Tokenization

Aviva Investors is bridging the gap between traditional asset management and blockchain technology by launching a tokenized share class for its $29 billion Sterling Liquidity Fund. By utilizing the XRP Ledger, the firm aims to enhance the efficiency and accessibility of its fund ecosystem. This move marks a shift in institutional adoption of distributed ledger technology, moving beyond experimental pilots into the management of massive, real-world capital pools. The integration allows for a more streamlined process for investors, potentially setting a new standard for how large-scale liquidity funds operate in a digital-first environment.

South Korea Eyes 2029 for Crypto Tax Rollout

South Korean authorities are weighing a fourth delay for the implementation of a capital gains tax on cryptocurrency investments. If the proposal moves forward, the tax would be pushed back until 2029. The primary motivation for this potential deferral is to ensure that the nation’s regulatory framework remains in lockstep with international standards. Specifically, officials are looking to synchronize the rollout with the OECD’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, a standard currently being adopted by the United States. By aligning with these global protocols, South Korea aims to avoid regulatory fragmentation while providing a clearer landscape for domestic investors and exchanges.

Calpers Shifts Strategy Amid Tech Sector Skepticism

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is pulling back from its heavy exposure to major technology stocks as investor confidence in the sector wanes. The pension fund is reallocating capital toward private equity, driven by skepticism regarding the long-term profitability of the massive expenditures currently flowing into artificial intelligence. This pivot away from the neocloud sector reflects a broader cooling of enthusiasm for big tech valuations. As one of the largest institutional investors, Calpers’ decision to reduce its tech footprint highlights deepening jitters surrounding the sustainability of the current AI-driven market rally, as participants question whether the promised returns will materialize in the near term.

What to Watch Next

The intersection of election-driven volatility and shifting institutional capital allocation suggests a high-stakes environment for the remainder of the week. Watch for further commentary from major pension funds and derivatives desk updates to see if the current caution holds or if liquidity begins to flow aggressively into risk assets.

Sources: The Block, The Block, The Block, CoinDesk, CoinDesk

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. All trading decisions should be made based on your own research and risk tolerance. Block Digest is not responsible for any financial losses incurred as a result of acting on this content.